Eagle's-eye View: An American Assessment of the 1973 Yom Kippur War

The United States displayed a keen interest in the nature, progress and results of the Yom Kippur War, because the fighting was thought to reflect how non-nuclear hostilities between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the Warsaw Pact (WP) would unfold on the plains of central Europe in case war broke out there. In contrast to many observers of the war, who concluded that the losses suffered by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) at the hands of Egyptian and Syrian anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons had rendered the aircraft and the tank largely impotent, thereby revolutionizing how wars would be waged in the future, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analysts and United States Army Training and Doctrine (TRADOC) Command officers, based upon an in-depth review of the nature, progress and results of the fighting, re-affirmed the centrality of these weapons systems on the modern battlefield. Rather than focus obsessively on technological developments, they concluded that training, leadership and tactics were ultimately the decisive elements in the Yom Kippur War.     

Restructuring structured analytic techniques in intelligence

Structured analytic techniques (SATs) are intended to improve intelligence analysis by checking the two canonical sources of error: systematic biases and random noise. Although both goals are achievable, no one knows how close the current generation of SATs comes to achieving either of them. We identify two root problems: (1) SATs treat bipolar biases as unipolar. As a result, we lack metrics for gauging possible over-shooting—and have no way of knowing when SATs that focus on suppressing one bias (e.g., over-confidence) are triggering the opposing bias (e.g., under-confidence); (2) SATs tacitly assume that problem decomposition (e.g., breaking reasoning into rows and columns of matrices corresponding to hypotheses and evidence) is a sound means of reducing noise in assessments. But no one has ever actually tested whether decomposition is adding or subtracting noise from the analytic process—and there are good reasons for suspecting that decomposition will, on balance, degrade the reliability of analytic judgment. The central shortcoming is that SATs have not been subject to sustained scientific of the sort that could reveal when they are helping or harming the cause of delivering accurate assessments of the world to the policy community.     

Trends in firearm background check applications and denials

There is little previous research on firearm background check applications and denials despite the potential for such research to significantly benefit policy and practice. The U.S. firearm background check system is complex with federal, state, and local laws creating a patchwork system intended to increase public safety and reduce mortality. State characteristics may play an important role in changes in application and denial rates. We examined the relationship between application and denial rates and state characteristics such as poverty, race, gender, existing firearm ownership, and population density. Multi‐level longitudinal modeling was used in an ecological study design with the state as the unit of analysis spanning a time period between 2005 and 2010, inclusive. Results indicated that application and denial rates significantly increased over time. Population density and poverty level were negatively related to application and denial rates. Firearm ownership, male population size, and percent of residents that were white were positively related to application and denial rates. Percent of African–American residents was negatively related to application rate. The importance of understanding the factors that predict firearm prevalence and the need for additional research on the denial of firearms is discussed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying and Qualifying Charisma: A Theoretical Framework for Measuring the Presence of Charismatic Authority in Terrorist Groups

In the past four decades, there has been increased multidisciplinary scholarly interest in the study of charismatic authority. However, there has yet to be any systematic examination of charismatic authority in the context of terrorism, despite widespread acknowledgment of the importance of charismatic leaders in the recruitment, radicalization, and operation of terrorist groups. This article seeks to contribute to future empirical research by presenting a theoretical framework for measuring the presence of charismatic authority in terrorist groups that is based on Max Weber's seminal work on legitimate domination (herrschaft) and on theoretical insights drawn from the study of charismatic authority in new religious movements. The framework is then applied to an illustrative case study of the relationship between charismatic authority and the radicalization process within the far-right terrorist group “the Covenant, the Sword, and the Arm of the Lord.” The article concludes with a discussion of findings and suggestions for future research.     

Associations Between Suicidal High School Students’ Help-Seeking and Their Attitudes and Perceptions of Social Environment

Suicide is a leading cause of death among adolescents, many of whom fail to disclose suicide concerns to adults who might help. This study examined patterns and predictors of help-seeking behavior among adolescents who seriously considered suicide in the past year. 2,737 students (50.9?% female, 46.9?% male; racial distribution 79.5?% Caucasian, 11.9?% Hispanic/Latino, and 3.6?% Black/African-American) from 12 high schools in rural/underserviced communities were surveyed to assess serious suicide ideation (SI) in the past year, disclosure of SI to adults and peers, attempts to get help, attitudes about help-seeking, perceptions of school engagement, and coping support. Help-seeking was defined as both disclosing SI to an adult and perceiving oneself as seeking help. The relationship between adolescents' help-seeking disclosure and (1) help-seeking attitudes and (2) perceptions of social resources was examined among suicidal help-seeking youth, suicidal non-help-seeking youth, and non-suicidal youth. Of the 381 (14?%) students reporting SI, only 23?% told an adult, 29?% sought adult help, and 15?% did both. Suicidal help-seekers were similar to non-suicidal peers on all measures of help-seeking attitudes and social environment perceptions. Positive attitudes about help-seeking from adults at school, perceptions that adults would respond to suicide concerns, willingness to overcome peer secrecy requests, and greater coping support and engagement with the school were associated with students' increased disclosure of SI and help-seeking. This study supports prevention strategies that change student norms, attitudes and social environments to promote help-seeking among adolescents with SI. Promising intervention targets include increasing students' perceptions of the availability and capability of adults to help them, and strengthening students' understanding of how existing resources can help them cope.     

Anniversary meeting,June 24, 1936

The election of the first government of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 2002 was a turning point for Turkey. People wanted change. That's what the AKP offered. Their successful economic management has seen Turkey transformed over the last 12 years. Foreign policy initiatives also prospered and relations with a number of neighbours improved.. More recent events have led some commentators to ask whether Turkey is moving forwards or backwards on the democratic path. There are concerns that the Ataturk legacy of a secular state is being slowly eroded by the forces of a conservative democracy and that too much power is now concentrated in the hands of Mr Erdogan. This is the background to the 2013 riots in (westernised) Istanbul. And the situation in the region leaves little room for optimism. The challenge now is to promote the political stability and predictability that will encourage continuing foreign and domestic investment in Turkey and to undertake the further structural reforms essential if Turkey is to rise out of the middle income trap and climb into the group of wealthier nations.     

Restitution or compensation: The open property question

German unification brought in train the principle of restitution, that property in the east should be restored to its former owners where that property had changed hands after 1945, or between 1933 and 1945, other than through ordinary commercial transaction or gift. This essentially backwards‐looking measure was bound to come into conflict with the need to promote investment in east Germany in the present and future, as well as to overcome the profound gulf which the years of division brought. The article examines property restitution in the general context of unification, and draws comparisons with revaluation legislation in the 1920s and the equalisation of burdens in the 1950s.